Massoud Pezeshkian, the only reformist candidate, won the presidential election earlier this month after Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash. Heart surgeon and Member of Parliament Pezheshkian served as Health Minister of Khatami government from 2001-2005.
After assuming the role of President of Iran, he has to face many challenges. The president plays an important role in the economy, society, culture and foreign affairs of Iran. But Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is the most powerful man in the country in terms of military, security policy and overall governance.
A review of the post-revolutionary elections of 1979 shows that two main issues were at the center of controversy in these elections. Economic conditions and foreign relations. During the revolution, the national currency of Iran was worth 70 rials against the dollar, now it has reached 600,000 rials. Iran's GDP growth has also stalled now.
In terms of foreign policy, whatever conservative, moderate and reformist governments come to power in Iran, they try to develop relations with the Arab and Islamic world, global south and eastern allies such as China, Russia and India. The main difference between conservative, moderate and reformist administrations is the relationship with the West, especially the United States. This is the main obstacle of Iranian politics.
Despite fundamental differences between Iran's political factions on the nature and extent of relations with the West, they agree on three key points. First, the US sanctions are having a negative impact on Iran. The sanctions cost Iran's economy trillions of dollars. The US has imposed thousands of sanctions on Iran since the revolution. Second, all post-revolutionary governments have attempted to ease tensions with the United States; But they failed.
A recent example was the nuclear deal negotiated during the Obama administration. The deal eased visible tensions between Washington and Tehran; But when the Donald Trump administration pulled out of the deal, hostilities escalated. Direct and indirect efforts by Raisi's conservative government to revive the agreement have failed. Third, Iran's relationship with the US depends on the Supreme Leader's decision, not on the government and parliament.
In order for Iran's economy to turn around, several conditions must be met. They are lifting sanctions, improving foreign relations, fighting corruption, reforming governance and privatisation. The Pezeshkian administration can solve these problems if it has the support of Iran's supreme leader, the Revolutionary Guard, the judiciary and the parliament.
The Pezheshkian government will be able to develop relations with Asia, the East and the Global South without facing domestic challenges. But if he wants to develop relations with the US and the West, he will have to face numerous challenges inside and outside the country.
It is not possible to normalize Iran's relations with other countries of the Western world if the hostility between Washington and Tehran is not resolved. Western sanctions on Iran will not be lifted until Iran-US relations thaw.
The reason for the failure of 40 years of direct and indirect efforts is that Iran continues to insist on a nuclear program very narrowly despite the many contentious issues between the two countries.
Addressing Iran's decades-long economic and foreign policy challenges requires a leadership that can make decisions based on national consensus and unity. Khamenei is a strong leader in Iran, capable of building national consensus. There is no doubt that Pezeshkian, like Khamenei, wants to ease the pressure of sanctions and get Iran's economy on a path of improvement.
Pezeshkian said he wants to ease sanctions pressure by building ties with the West and reviving the nuclear deal. This means that Pezeshkian has Khamenei's consent to these initiatives; But that will have to wait until the US elections in November. Because, it cannot be said right now whether the new president will develop relations with Iran or take a policy of conflict.
Whether or not there will be any major changes in the relations of the Western world with Iran is in the hands of Washington.
● Syed Hossain Moussavian is an expert on Middle East security at Princeton University
*Taken from Muleast Eye.
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